Outlook on post-COVID-19 economic scenarios in Cuba

Within the framework of the 2nd Cuba-EU Expert Exchange programme, which is funded by the European Union and managed by FIIAPP, three virtual exchange sessions have been organised to analyse post-COVID scenarios, both global and economic, and those related to the tourism sector. 

This technical exchange seeks to contribute to improving the capacity of Cuba’s Ministry of Economy and Planning regarding the strategy to follow in the current situation of national and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19. To this end, the alternatives for the country and its economic system‘s capacity to adapt have been analysed, considering the measures already adopted, as well as others to be adopted during the period after the pandemic. 

The main aspects discussed were oriented around uncertainties and possible developments derived from the impacts of COVID-19 in various interconnected systems: social, technological, economic, environmental and governance; the role of SMEs in the economic recovery; the scenarios for the tourism sector; a review of the new financing mechanisms in the face of the new economic reality; guides for governments to design public policy recommendations; and recent forward-looking studies in the Cuban context. 

The result of this technical assistance will also contribute to the development of a research report that will contain the strategic projection tools that will support the projection of the Cuban economy into the 2030 horizon. 

The use of methods, such as strategic foresight, for a development vision over the long term, enables information to be collected and improves the preparation of policies for decision-making in the process of updating national economic models, especially in times of great uncertainty such as the current crisis situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.